SPOILER ALERT! This “What's the Play” is from Max's Vintage Esper Phoenix League, Match 3. If you don't wish to be spoiled, don't read on. If you've already watched it, don't care, or just really like spoilers, then keep reading! I'm not going to stop you; I'm just an article.

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This is game 3. Lots of turns have elapsed, and Montolio just resolved a for 1 last turn. We were going to upkeep to stack Zeroes on top of our library for (hereafter known as “Bob”), but the Chalice put a stop to that. We just revealed a , and drew a second , going from 4 life to 3.

ADDITIONAL KNOWN INFORMATION:

Montiolio's 2 cards in hand are and .

Montolio knows about our , as we revealed it to Bob.

Our deck has 2 more es, 2 more , and 20 other cards that do nothing other than cost 1 or 0.

What's our best play here, to maximize our chance at winning this game?

Once you've thought about it and decided on your line, read on. We're going to derive the best play and the reasoning behind it.

We know the following things:

We can't take 4 damage on Montolio's next turn, or we die.

If we take 2 damage, a bunch of cards in our deck kill us if they get flipped to Bob.

If we take no damage on Montolio's turn, we still have a 4 in 24 (16.6%) of dying to Bob on our next turn.

in our graveyard can “sacrifice” Bob for the cost of 1 mana, even though it doesn't resolve.

Montolio can draw one of 4 s to win instantly, or one of 3 remaining to be annoying, and most likely also win. He probably also has 2 to draw. We should try to minimize his draw steps.

We can deduce the following:

It makes no sense to play around a drawn , as we can't beat it.

would take the , so we should be aware of that.

A drawn could bounce our , making her a less reliable blocker.

First, it is pretty straightforward that our best way of winning is in the air, attacking with Phoenixes. But how many, and when?

First, let's tap the 4 lands (other than ) in play to cast the second , and play an Underground Sea from hand.

To figure out our attackers, we first need to figure out what blocking will look like against Montolio. If he doesn't draw a Karakas, our Lavinia trades with his , bounces his Lavinia, and we can afford to take 2, provided we sacrifice Bob to the Cabal Therapy.

Montolio has a roughly 4.8% chance to draw as his card for turn, which kills us on the spot unless we leave back Bob or Phoenix as back-up blockers. Since Bob has a 16.6% chance of killing us next turn, risking a 16.6% chance to hedge for a 4.8% chance doesn't make sense. If he's not blocking, he should probably be attacking on our turn. Whether we sacrifice him remains to be seen.

If we leave one Phoenix back to block, we would be getting in for 5, with one Phoenix and the Bob. Note: We are assuming he wouldn't block to trade with Bob because it simultaneously eliminates his chance to win with Bob flipping lethal, and removes an attacker, making his potential attack much weaker. This means Montolio is at 10.

Let's say Montolio doesn't draw a or , but instead draws a middling non-Legend creature, like another or . We already know he has a to play, at the bare minimum.

After casting and -ing his Lavinia, we would have: 2x 4/3 Flying, a 3/2, and a 3/3, against a 2/2 (say it was a Shrunk Displacer) and a 1/1 . We hit for 8, blocks and trades occur, and Montolio gets another shot at drawing Reality Smasher. For this line, we also have to not die to Bob.

For this line to work, we have a 83.4% chance to survive Bob, a 84.0% chance to fade one of 3 and one of 4 s on the first draw, and a 90.1% chance to survive Montolio's second look at a . The odds of us winning are the product of these three things: 63.5%.

Not bad, but what if we attack with both Phoenixes?

If we do that, a topdecked kills us, as well, since it removes our lone blocker.

However, does a topdecked still do us in? Montolio would be at 7. would take . Let's say he leaves everything back to block, meaning nothing gets through on the ground, and we have a lethal shot from Montolio on the attack back. So, a drawn TKS is still a loss for us.

The odds of this line working are the product of our 83.4% chance to survive Bob combined with the 79.5% chance to fade 2 , 3 , and 4 off the top for Montolio. The odds of us winning are still a little better than before, though! Our odds to win are now a respectable 66.3%

But wait! isn't doing anything else productive, once he attacks and connects. He's not blocking, and all he has to do it not kill us on our upkeep. This means that we can sacrifice him with after he gets in for his 2 damage.

Once we take that into account, our odds to win are simply the odds of fading one of 2 , 3 s, and 4 s off of Montolio's deck, which is 9 cards in 44, or 79.5% to not see one of those 9. Therefore, sacrificing Bob to brings our odds of winning to a whopping 79.5%!

Therefore, our best play is the following. Play Phoenix (leaving up). Attack for 8 with both Phoenix and . In the second main phase, play for turn to pay the tax, and sacrifice to . Provided that the MODO gods are smiling, you have an almost 80% chance to win!

In the actual match, I completely missed the play of attacking with Bob, holding him back to block in case of a top-decked . As we now know, that was bad equity. Montolio drew a blank, passed back to me after playing , and Bob flipped an in my upkeep. Oops. The correct play in Magic is often a tough nut to crack, and you don't have time to calculate the odds of everything in-game, like we just did here. Hopefully, though, by going through all of this now, next time a similar situation arises in my game or yours, we will have a better gut-feel about what our best play would be.