Editor's Note:
This article is split into two different parts, a deck analysis and a matchup guide, this is the second part.
Matchup Guide
UR Delver
Pre-Board: The preboard matchup can be tricky. Typically casting at any point of the game is very difficult. They have counterspells and a lot of threats that will kill you if you drop your life total too far. Some heuristics I have is to cast only if the board is really stable, or if this is in the early game and I can protect with counter magic, or if it is the only way I can steal a win. The other mental note I have in my head is that at anything less than 14 life is incredibly dangerous, as 6 or less life puts you dead to 2 hits from a threat or a . I will however, cast a unprotected sometimes if they are tapped out with no threat and I have an extra mana to play around . Their blue cards are high impact, and if I can trade and a for a force + any blue card, I think that is a favored trade. Typically you win the game if you get your mana underneath you and can cast enough 2 for 1's. is your pseudo mirror breaker as the game typically comes down to creature beats and they can rarely attack favorably into them. I will put on Bird to make sure they resolve if I need to. Sometimes this will be a lightning rod for and I'd much rather them waste a cavern than any other land. You need to put a murktide on the battlefield and protect it to victory. Game 1 is a very difficult matchup and is typically decided by the dice roll. Remove their threats so they can't take your life total down quickly and try and win a long game with 2 for 1's.
Sideboarding:-4 , -1 , -4 , -2 . +2 , +2 , +1 , +2 , +1 , +2 , +2
Post Board: The postboard games are much more interesting. I will recommend everyone playing against competent opponents in paper to shuffle your whole 15 cards in your sideboard into your main deck and then remove the 15 out. You are transforming into a different deck in a sideboard game, and any information you can conceal is important. You gain massive advantage by your opponent being forced to respect that you can cast a in a postboard game. They will have a worse deck against you if you force them to leave in stack based interaction because you will basically be playing Grixis Delver. The sideboard leans into being a 2 for 1 value deck. I leave the in the deck to almost exclusively name Bird. If you name dragon it is not super helpful as will remove it once it hits the battlefield, and if they waste blasts on instead you are feeling very favored. Try to be cognizant of , as getting d when you didn't need to is the fastest way to lose the mirror. If you cast enough 's and you will likely be favored.
GW Depths
Pre-Board: This matchup is very favored. Try to cast as soon as possible. You typically lose to a fast marit lage with protection or by being ed out of the game. They will be favored against the tempo gameplan, but it does cause them to waste resources on stopping you if you cast a big murktide.
Sideboarding: -1 , -1 , -1 , -2 , -1 . +2 , + 1 , +1 , +2
Post Board: You will lose the sideboard games in the same way as the preboard ones. Try and cast a fast or you can use your on a fast which will greatly slow their gameplan down. They will likely bring in some combo hate against you, so be aware so you don't allow them to use it effectively against you.
Elves
Pre-Board: This matchup is interesting. This section assumes it is the HelloNewton Fiend Artisan version of the deck, as that is what I played against all weekend. I believe you are very favored against this deck. However, they can win this game. If they have Allosaurus Shepherd and a fast natural order, that can kill you if you don't have enough interaction. They can also win if you let them go too wide, so put pressure on them so they cannot try and grind you out. A fast combo will win, and they struggle to answer a resolved murktide since typically their only out is a single Grist. The other ation is that they have a main deck , so it is possible to get blown out if you are not careful.
Sideboarding: -4 , -1 , -1 . +1 , +2 , +2 , +1
Post Board: Post board is fairly similar but is even better for you because you have a lot of good interaction to stop them from reaching critical mass. This MU is why I have over bolt, as you need push to kill their Fiend Artisans. You can win quickly but remember to be thinking about and boseiju after you resolve because they will try and trip you up if you let them.
4C Control
Pre-Board: This MU is favorable for you typically. They don't actually have a lot of interaction as the AnziD builds have more scary threats than scary answers. If you can resolve early, they will never have a chance to cast their threats. They have answers to your threats, but you can steal games with a big with protection. Watch out for main deck .
Sideboarding:-2 , -3 , -4 . +2 , +2 , +2 , +1 , +2
Post Board: They will be much more focused in a sideboard game, but they still will likely lack a reasonable amount of interaction to stop you from casting a quick . Make sure you keep a in hand to protect your against a . is good at tripping them up due to their sketchy manabase and high number of fetch lands. It is also a reasonable clock and pressure against their planeswalkers. is an amazing card in the matchup for obvious reasons, but is also very good at not being slowed down by a resolved Narset, Parter of Veils in a pile. stops them from winning with a Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath or bringing back repeatedly with Life from the Loam if they keep the package in.
8 Cast
Pre-Board: This matchup may be the hardest one you can face. They have a lot of interaction to stop you from casting , they have Chalice of the Void against all your 1 mana value spells, they put out a wide board presence very quickly to pressure your life total and can have incredibly explosive value games. Typically I win by stealing games by resolving a and winning before they can kill me, or with a big with protection while forcing or killing their few threats and slowing them down early. You will likely have to get lucky to win.
Sideboarding: -4 , -1 , -1 , -4 . +1 , +1 , +2 , +2 , +1 , +2 , +1
Post Board: My postboard used to be more focused on having a chance in this matchup with 2 s but I find it's not worth it as the deck is on a decline (particularly online) due to the rise of Moon Stompy as a similar but more consistent deck. You can almost never resolve a in postboard games as if they know what is up they will have even more force effects out of their sideboard. So I typically try and juke and play a more fair game plan to try and win solely on the back of a protected while ing their few early threats. Hearse is good at slowing down their Emry draws while also giving Murktide pseudo haste in the late game. is a key card, and it is back breaking to clear their board and then put it back on top with .
Death and Taxes
Pre-Board: This matchup is highly favored. Good pilots will know how to beat you and they will typically do it by either using their mana denial to lock you out of the game with Rishadan Port and or with a fast Stoneforge Mystic into Kaldra Compleat with hatebears. You can also lose your poor hands into their hatebears as , Guardian of Thraben and Spirit of the Labyrinth will cause your hand to be incredibly clunky. You need to put a onto the stack early, and typically fill your pile with mana sources. Fetchlands are your friend to stop them from ing you every turn. You must force an Aether Vial or Stoneforge Mystic to make sure they don't put Kaldra Compleat into play since you cannot beat that card.
Sideboarding:-1 , -1 , -2 , -1 . +1 , +2 , +2
Post Board: I will shout out David Lance running Red splash Taxes, and in that case you need to leave in a Cavern for . Also be aware that the red splash runs Magus of the Moon which is incredibly back breaking against you. They will win postboard games the same way they win preboard games, but they will also likely bring in a lot of bad combo hate pieces against you. I never feel better than when my opponent keeps 7 and plays a turn 1 Deafening Silence against me. Their deck will be full of bad combo hate cards that don't have a lot of text in this matchup. The secret in this matchup is that playing turn 1 is low-key not a good place to be. You can answer all their threats, especially in a postboard game, and typically they will beat you the most by letting you lose to yourself and having mana issues. I find I win a significant amount of my games by either having a great hand with t1 and hit all my land drops and cast spells for the rest of the game or casting it on t3/4 and then hitting all my land drops and casting all my spells for the rest of the game. The name of the game is to not die to . I promise you you will likely lose a game once or twice to mana denial before you learn your lesson that this matchup is not a bye. There is no shame in having a pile be Fetch Fetch Land Land.
Jeskai Control
Pre-Board: This matchup is actually fairly favored if played properly. My win rate against the deck was fairly low until I switched to to beat Narset, and I realized they struggled to ever beat casted early before they could get their feet under them to find interaction. The best way to win the game is to cast with backup. I will also typically cast a turn 1 or 2 even without protection for similar reasons to Delver. means you can always find that again later in the game. They will have answers to Murktide so it's not a great place to be, but it will end the game quickly if you can protect it. Be aware that is actually very good against you if you have a resolved and less than 8 cards to draw.
Sideboarding: -2 , -2 , -4 . +2 , +2 , +1 , +2 , +1
Post Board: This is similar to preboard but they will likely have more stack interaction. Blast is your friend, and is in for their blast effects and any potential red splash they may have, in particular land hate. is in to mess with their mana as they have a high number of fetch lands and it flashing in is very good against them.
Painter
Pre-Board: This matchup is very difficult. If you've ever thought about how interacts with pass the turn piles in , you can realize why. They can find really easily to disrupt your slow piles, and the red versions (the most common) are full of s which is incredibly good against your plan. I find that my win rate is very low in g1 and I typically only win by disrupting their welder effects early and hoping they stumble and fall victim to their deck being full of bad cards. You can win with a if they don't have an Urza's Saga in play and you can stop their or tutor. Try to combo in as few turns as you can. and would be good here, but I find it's not able to fix this matchup so I am staying clear of it.
Sideboarding: -4 , -1 , -4 , -2 , -1 . +1 , +1 Rough // Tumble, +2 , +2 , +2 , +1 , +2 , +
Post Board: Because is such a beating to , you cut the whole package and play a fair game plan where you try and disrupt their key pieces and then win with a . is great into their welder effects and is a good way to slow them down. is great as well as they do a lot of library searching. Otherwise you need to clear their board with , Hidetsugu or Rough and slow them down.
Reanimator
Pre-Board: This matchup is bad in a lot of ways. Like with most decks, if they have their nuts hands against you, you will likely struggle. You should try and disrupt their early game with stack interaction and ride a threat to victory. is a threat in this situation. If you can win the next turn with a pile without casting the cards in your hand, you can typically win even if they bring back a threat, because they will only strip your hand from a blank boardstate, not kill you. If you resolve a , it is more than reasonable to stack force effects and try and force their threats the rest of the game.
Sideboarding:-1 , -2 , -1 , -2 , -1 . +2 , +2 , +2 , +1
Post Board: This sideboarding is actually decently flexible. There are some obvious things to cut and bring in, but it's possible that if they are on the blue splash for show and tell you want more blast effects. I find that you are typically still leaning on force or for those situations as your graveyard hate is fairly weak, and you can't put a fast clock on them like you can with turbo . It's also possible to leave in all the s and trim even harder on but rely on to shut down . is solely for Faithless Looting which is also kind of narrow, but you have to do what you have to do. The deck is not designed to win this matchup, and looking at online winrates I think that is okay. You likely won't see it very often at top tables and you have to stretch this version so much to be okay in the matchup that it is not worth it.
Lands
Pre-Board: This matchup is very straightforward. If you find a , you will win the game as long as you don't get wasted out of the game. To not get wasted out of the game, make sure you get the island and then hold up a lot of fetch lands. They can also win games if they have a turbo marit lage. Try and interact with their crop rotations to stop them from putting the combo together because you will not be able to beat it in game 1.
Sideboarding: -2 , -4 , -1 . +2 , +2 , +2 , +1
Post Board: They will be on the same game plan as g1, but now they will have a higher number of s and blasts. You can lose to if you are not careful with your devotion count and graveyard. Hearse breaks up life from the loam loops ing you over and over.
Moon Stompy
Pre-Board: This matchup can be very rough, especially against good pilots who keep good hands. All their stax pieces are good against the deck, as destroys the manabase, chalice on 1 shuts off a large percentage of the deck, and an early will cause you not to cast a spell for a long time. You will need to get lucky, and don't feel bad if you try to cast a and then get shut out by a stax piece if it's not avoidable. If you are lucky, you will force an opponent's first threat and ride a Murktide to victory. If your opponent is good, they will cast a must answer threat almost every turn and they will bury you, so look to steal games if you can.
Sideboarding: -4 , -1 , -2 , -1 . +1 , +1 , +2 , +1 , +2 , +1
Post Board: Post board is not particularly great either, but you do have 2 s to bring it which allows you to remove the Blood Moon with the Island in play. You cannot fully remove the combo so if you can cast the on turn 3 or 4 you can try and win by stacking the deck to answer their threats for the rest of the game into a protected . Rough is great to clear their board of all goblins. and Hidetsugu are in to try and answer their artifact mana and chalice, and Hidetsugu has the upside of also being a threat and kills goblin tokens. Sometimes you can get lucky by stumbling their mana with these effects and slowing them down significantly.
Mirror
Pre-Board: You are favored in this matchup. If you've ever played the mirror, you know that games either typically end by someone comboing and their opponent not having interaction, or each player smashes their hand into each other, and they end up with no cards in hand and you win with a resolved . This deck is similar but you also have the bonus of having good cards in your deck that will be good if you both fight over a . And you also have a reasonable clock with , which is easy to cast if you spend your whole hand in a counter war. Do not allow them to resolve a , as they will beat you if you let them.
Sideboarding: -2 , -3 , +2 , +2 , +1
Post Board: Post board is very similar, and you have the added benefit of your s being powered up because is lights out against them, and they will have very little answers to it being resolved. I will not keep a hand without interaction, as if you let them combo, they will check to see if you have it since they aren't favored the longer the game goes on.